This past weekend, Awards Insider’s reporters David Canfield and Kara Warner attended three shows of pivotal importance to the Oscar race: the Screen Actors Guild Awards on Saturday night, and then the Film Independent Spirit Awards and Producers Guild of America Awards back-to-back on Sunday—all taking place smack in the middle of final voting on the winners. Here, they break down their reports from the rooms, debate the categories most open to a surprise on Oscar night, and spill on their conversations around Hollywood.

David Canfield: If you were at an awards show in Hollywood this past weekend, you can bet pretty good money you saw a bunch of Oscar contenders at each one—even if they weren’t nominated. Actors including Lily Gladstone and Jeffrey Wright hit the trifecta of the SAG Awards, the PGA Awards, and the Indie Spirits, taking the stage at all three—in some cases to give an acceptance speech, in others to present for someone else. Margot Robbie and costar America Ferrera introduced Barbie to both the actors and the producers guilds with introductory packages, and Bradley Cooper presented a lifetime achievement award to Barbra Streisand. These ceremonies always matter a great deal on the trail, but 2024 provided an even more irresistible campaign stop in the midst of voting weekend (ballots can be submitted until Tuesday).

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But even if everyone was busy, they might not have done much to change the outcome at the Oscars. I attended the SAG Awards on Saturday and the PGA Awards on Sunday, while Kara, you headed to the Indie Spirits. While there were small surprises at both of the guild shows, it felt like you were at the place (or in the tent) where any shifts in momentum—a real caveat being most major Oscar contenders weren’t eligible there—could best be detected. What was the mood in the room, and what results struck you the most?

Kara Warner: What a perfect table-setter for this very busy weekend, David! The Independent Spirit Awards are always a stand-out event, mainly because the daytime, beachside event in Santa Monica usually makes for a more relaxed and genuinely friendly atmosphere. Sunday’s event was no different, where major Oscar contenders and new Spirit Award winners Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) and Cord Jefferson and Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction) happily mingled inside the tent with attendees, including fellow Spirit nominees Anne Hathaway and Natalie Portman. There was major love in the room for Randolph, Jefferson, and Wright, the latter of whom received a partial standing ovation, and there was huge crowd support and applause for the event’s big winner Celine Song, who won both best director and best feature for her debut Past Lives. 

Despite the love and admiration throughout the room and tent, about halfway through the show, a loud recorded voice started blasting from outside the tent on the public beach. It was a group of two or three pro-Palestine protestors playing a recorded chant through one megaphone. Jim Gaffigan was presenting a category when the recording began playing outside. He, and every subsequent presenter and winner, handled the unexpected disturbance as best as they could. Gaffigan gave the crowd several knowing glances, seemingly acknowledging that there was something unplanned happening outside that clearly wasn’t ending soon, and carried on with his introduction. It was a unique situation to be sure, with murmured support from some audience members, but also understanding that the live-streaming event had to continue. Host Aidy Bryant, whose playful approach and light ribbing of celebrities in attendance received warm reactions and laughs throughout, reminded the audience that the event’s location at a public beach can result in unpredictability. One winner, Fremont writer and director Babak Jalali, told the crowd during his acceptance speech of the John Cassavetes award, that he was moved and inspired by “what was going on outside,” which received applause from the audience.

Canfield: The SAGs and PGAs were, let’s say, a bit more insular than that. It was difficult for journalists to do their jobs at all, in fact, at the actors’ ceremony, with reporters essentially trapped up in balcony seating with no opportunity for movement to other areas of the Shrine Auditorium, a sharp contrast to past editions I’ve attended. For a show hoping to find more eyeballs in shifting platforms to Netflix for the first time this year, I’d assume more—and richer—coverage would be a good thing for everyone, so let’s hope changes are made going forward, or I suspect reporters will start bowing out (myself included).

Still, even from way up high, you could detect the thrill and enthusiasm in the room when Gladstone pulled off a minor upset and won best actress over presumptive front-runner Emma Stone. I’ve said over the past month that this is the most fluid, unpredictable race of the major categories at the Oscars, a fact which has been cemented by this weekend’s otherwise by-the-numbers results. (Cillian Murphy winning BAFTA and now SAG paves a very clear path to the best-actor Oscar, and both Randolph and Robert Downey Jr. remain locks in the supporting races.) Kara, I’m curious, seeing Past Lives and American Fiction finally get big onstage moments—could you see that momentum carrying through at all to Oscar night? I’d like to think seeing fresh faces has some impact on things!

Warner: Interesting about the seating for reporters at SAG…. When you aren’t able to move about the rooms and event spaces as a whole, it’s difficult to paint a helpful-for-readers picture of what is happening outside of the broadcast. That is not the case at the Spirits, where plenty of attendees wander around the space throughout the event. Anyway! The reaction to Jefferson’s best-screenplay win for American Fiction definitely supports his front-runner status in the adapted-screenplay category at the Oscars. However, I will not be upset if Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach somehow pull out a win. The same love was given to Song and Past Lives, but also to Anatomy of a Fall director Justine Triet, who took home the award for best international film. The love and appreciation for Past Lives is very strong, but I still feel the momentum of Anatomy of a Fall is stronger. What do you think about these potentially tighter categories? Were there any rumblings around you about the unsurprising and possibly too-predictable dominance of Oppenheimer?

Canfield: You can’t feel bad for Oppenheimer, obviously—but, man, is it hard to muster enthusiasm for wins this obvious and inevitable. Last year with Everything Everywhere All at Once, that A24 genre-bender had the sheen of an underdog, even as its march to best picture was similarly virtually uncontested. So at the PGAs we got a very dutiful standing ovation—the feeling that this epic blockbuster achievement certainly deserves its accolades and will make for a great winner. But for those of us who follow this stuff for months on end, it all could use a little more spice. In fact, I’d argue that the movie is so dominant at this point, it’s probably American Fiction’s chief challenger for adapted screenplay and poised for a historic sweep. I’d still lean Fiction, as it gets these crucial moments like at the Spirits, but Barbie once again leaving this weekend empty-handed does not bode especially well for an upset anywhere.

Past Lives, one of the year’s most acclaimed films (and the smallest of this year’s best-picture 10), will have a difficult time, meanwhile denting the momentum of Anatomy of a Fall for best original screenplay—but never say never. The gorgeous debut feature from Celine Song certainly deserved a big awards-show embrace, and I’m glad it got one on Sunday. But at the PGAs, there were two films I heard most about in conversations with folks. One was Killers of the Flower Moon, and specifically Gladstone—which was mainly, admittedly, due to my seating at a table for Apple, but also because Gladstone’s thrilling momentum in the race is unmistakable. (She sat right beside Martin Scorsese, who received a rousing honor on Sunday night and gave a brilliant speech.) And the other was Anatomy of a Fall. I keep wondering if this movie can win anything other than a screenplay award, since the buzz on it turns more deafening by the day. But again, the sheer strength of Oppenheimer makes that feel unlikely. Kara, anything you heard on the ground back in Santa Monica?

Warner: Well, first, you’re reiterating what we’ve been saying about the season as a whole: This awards season year for film is one of the strongest in recent memory. So many worthy nominees and winners! I also can’t be upset with the likely Oppenheimer steamroll, but I am rooting for the growing momentum for Anatomy of a Fall to create some more intrigue and surprise. The Spirit Awards are always a welcome buffer of sorts in the midst of all the traditional awards shows leading up to the Oscars; here are lots of your favorite celebrities and awards season favorites laughing and smiling at the beach!

There was a legitimate spirited vibe the whole day and general camaraderie among industry newcomers and OGs. A few closing highlights for me: watching Bottoms scene-stealer and nominee (and NFL icon) Marshawn Lynch meeting a new group of potential colleagues and genuinely starstruck fans. Similarly, All of Us Strangers star Andrew Scott was constantly surrounded by well-wishers and admirers, including Anna Kendrick and Zoe Lister-Jones, who engaged him in a lengthy chat at the official after-party. Scott stuck around for the whole shebang, until the lights in the ballroom came on and indicated the party’s end.